Could Gille be Canada's Fearless Leader?
Don't think Gille Duceppe could be Canada's next Prime Minister? It could happen. In fact, it's entirely mathematically possible. Let me demonstrate:
There's 308 ridings in Canada. Let's say the Bloc Qébecois wins 70 out of Quebec's 75 seats (realistic considering the current popularity of the Bloc). So now assume that there are lots of pissed off, undecided voters, so things gets split rather evenly between the three other parties. So give them 69 seats each. That leaves 31 seats. Assume that there are so many completely disaffected, cynical voters out there that the Green Party gets 28 seats. Then the remaining 3 seats go to independents.
Let's look at the grand total again:
Conservatives: 69
Liberals: 69
NDP: 69
Bloc Québecois: 70
Green Party: 28
Independent: 3
So, guess who's Canada's next PM? I'll give you two hints:
1) He's not much of a fan of English
2) His main mandate as PM would be to get the hell out of Canada
If you still haven't guessed the right answer, I'll just assume that you vote Marijuana Party.
There's 308 ridings in Canada. Let's say the Bloc Qébecois wins 70 out of Quebec's 75 seats (realistic considering the current popularity of the Bloc). So now assume that there are lots of pissed off, undecided voters, so things gets split rather evenly between the three other parties. So give them 69 seats each. That leaves 31 seats. Assume that there are so many completely disaffected, cynical voters out there that the Green Party gets 28 seats. Then the remaining 3 seats go to independents.
Let's look at the grand total again:
Conservatives: 69
Liberals: 69
NDP: 69
Bloc Québecois: 70
Green Party: 28
Independent: 3
So, guess who's Canada's next PM? I'll give you two hints:
1) He's not much of a fan of English
2) His main mandate as PM would be to get the hell out of Canada
If you still haven't guessed the right answer, I'll just assume that you vote Marijuana Party.
posted by Werben at 4:51 PM
3 Comments:
It doesn't quite work like that.
It's possible that the Governor General might turn to Gilles and ask him to try and form a workable coalition. The test of whether he could or not depends on whether or not he passes a throne speech. That's his first act of parliament. It has to be.
If he fails, then he's lost a vote of confidence. Michaele Jean then turns to the leader of the party with the largest number of seats. Can he form a workable coalition? Get that throne speech passed, and he's prime minister.
Yes, the fact that there's a three-way tie for second place might complicate things, but in this parliament, I'm sure that there is some major negotiations going on, and it's likely that Jean would turn to the leader that's holding up his hand like an overeager schoolboy. The test is whether or not he can pass the throne speech. If he does, he's prime minister. If not, we try again.
And one other thing: if this scenario plays out, there is some precident to allowing Paul Martin first crack at forming a government, assuming he's kept his seat. Theoretically, he's prime minister until he's defeated, and while the election isn't as clear a defeat as you may think, a defeat or victory in the throne speech will make all the difference. The complication is, Paul Martin has already been defeated on a vote of confidence.
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Hey James,
That's all true! Nicely put. My post was meant to be sarcastic really, because I'm quite fed up with the election in general, so it wasn't supposed to be taken all that seriouslyl LOL
But, yeah, if (i guess the chances would be about a billion to one) the scenerio I laid out acutally happened, things could get really complicated.
btw Thanks very much for the post!
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